Egregoros

@WandererUber Iran is not going to get a nuke, especially now. Getting a nuke is a preventative measure to avoid being attacked. Countries don't aquire nukes to use them. They get nukes to avoid being attacked.

And, my point was the Israel would not actually use nukes because there are other, less destructive measures.

What's most likely to happen, going forward, is a US ground invasion like we saw in Iraq. Decades of giving defense contractors hundreds of billions of dollars, no real desire to "win" or any real definition of what it means to win, and a regieme change that leaves Israel as a world superpower, and the Iranian people destitute.

Turkey will be next.

@WandererUber Tactical nukes create more of an ecological disaster than airburst nukes because they are driven into the ground and exploded. All that dirt and debris become irradiated and sent up into the atmosphere.

Why would they do that? Because generals and politicians don't know a fucking thing about nuclear explosions and could care less about the potential after effects. Hubris is the most deadly sin.

Realistically, it's unlikely that they will actually use nukes, and more strongly prefer the US just invade. Israel has nothing to lose with a US ground invasion.

@WandererUber @DrRyanSkelton On Saturday, Trump announced an operation that was to last 4 days. Now, it's expected to last 4-5 weeks. Soon, it will be ground forces of about 2500 "spec ops" to sweep up and oversee regieme change. It will grow, secretly, to 25,000 by 2028. In 2028, Vance will campaign on getting elected to "finish the job." Newsom will escalate the ground force to 100,000 troops for a decisive victory. 20 years later, a Trump-esq figure will call Trump an idiot for getting us involved in a war that cost us $5 Trillion and got 100,000 Americans and 2 million Iranians killed, and use that to get elected. By then, Israel will be a hegemonic super power demanding Turkey be thrown out of NATO so their Kurdistan Allies can invade without a conflict of interest.