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@Ghislaine I maintain that half the reason neocons pushed the war in Iran was to derail the administration's legitimately strong immigration record.
@AmericanChampion I don’t see how it’s derailed tbh
@Ghislaine You can argue the degree, but the senate odds and 2028 presidency odds are both down significantly as a result of the war. Questionable whether a Dem senate is meaningfully different from Thune's, I suppose.
@AmericanChampion @Ghislaine
The dems are gonna depose trump when they take both houses of congress next year. Its gonna be messy.
The dems are gonna depose trump when they take both houses of congress next year. Its gonna be messy.
@rusty_shackleford @AmericanChampion oh no another impeachment
@Ghislaine @AmericanChampion
Trumps got 6 months to turn things around or hes gonna get fucked. Not just impeachment, if they control > 2/3rds of congress, they will pass whatever laws they want and put trump in jail for real this time.
Trumps got 6 months to turn things around or hes gonna get fucked. Not just impeachment, if they control > 2/3rds of congress, they will pass whatever laws they want and put trump in jail for real this time.
@rusty_shackleford @AmericanChampion that's a big if
@Ghislaine @AmericanChampion
Trumps base is abandoning him if he continues fucking up like this. No one wantes this war and the economy is in the shitter.
If dems get their messaging right and seize on this historic opportunity to capitalize on trumps collasal fuckups, they will win big.
Trumps base is abandoning him if he continues fucking up like this. No one wantes this war and the economy is in the shitter.
If dems get their messaging right and seize on this historic opportunity to capitalize on trumps collasal fuckups, they will win big.
I agree with this analysis.
Democrats don't have to be perfectly explicit about their positions on Iran / Israel / Immigration / Trans / ..., they just have to be vague and say Trump is a war criminal who must be impeached and imprisoned.
Trump's gonna have to pull out some REAL 17-D chess here, the old faithful "just flee to Israel" is not looking that reliable anymore.
Democrats don't have to be perfectly explicit about their positions on Iran / Israel / Immigration / Trans / ..., they just have to be vague and say Trump is a war criminal who must be impeached and imprisoned.
Trump's gonna have to pull out some REAL 17-D chess here, the old faithful "just flee to Israel" is not looking that reliable anymore.
@cjd @rusty_shackleford @AmericanChampion Meanwhile in reality, 85% of republicans support the war as of a poll this weekend. Negative consequences will have to actually materialize in order to change the state of play
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> a poll
Last 3 elections proved that polls show what the pollsters want them to. They're worthless.
Prediction markets are pretty sure that Dems are getting the house. 49% they get the Senate too.
Last 3 elections proved that polls show what the pollsters want them to. They're worthless.
Prediction markets are pretty sure that Dems are getting the house. 49% they get the Senate too.
@cjd @Ghislaine @rusty_shackleford @AmericanChampion prediction markets are forward looking, are from people who can consider the negative consequences that we have plenty of time for.
Polls also easily lose the depth of a sentiment. "Yeah I'm OK with killing ragheads, I guess, but not if there are ANY downsides or if ANYTHING goes wrong or if I feel bad AT ALL" is like a nail barely sticking out of a wall. It's a "nail sticking out of a wall", and if you wanted to hang a heavy mirror you might want a "nail sticking out of a wall", but you don't want *that* nail.
The triumphant cope among MAGA is still that eliminating voter fraud guarantees a Democrat loss. It may still not do that if Republicans are too disgusted to show up.
Polls also easily lose the depth of a sentiment. "Yeah I'm OK with killing ragheads, I guess, but not if there are ANY downsides or if ANYTHING goes wrong or if I feel bad AT ALL" is like a nail barely sticking out of a wall. It's a "nail sticking out of a wall", and if you wanted to hang a heavy mirror you might want a "nail sticking out of a wall", but you don't want *that* nail.
The triumphant cope among MAGA is still that eliminating voter fraud guarantees a Democrat loss. It may still not do that if Republicans are too disgusted to show up.
Voter fraud thing is a big deal. I think the word on the street is it's good for 5 points. When the act finally passes, it will be interesting to see is the market adjusts, but I'm gonna say It's Priced In 😎 because the center of the bell curve is D house, R senate.