Egregoros

I feel compelled to bring up Kulak's analysis on this from a few years ago... It's now paid members only, but if anyone is worth subscribing to, it's this guy.

> Except, of course, a draft wouldn't work.
Set aside the fact that 70+% are completely unfit to be conscripted... set aside the fact that we
just had a "medical emergency" which taught everyone they should bribe and fake medical
wavers as soon as possible... Set aside the fact that the border patrol is at its breaking and
there are now millions of Americans who've spent an inordinate amount of time contemplating
the tissue paper security of land and sea borders...
Set all that aside... Americans hate the government and have vastly more arms than the federal
government could hope to command against them.
Black, white, latino, man, woman, gay, straight, Democrat, republican... Americans are unified in
one sentiment:
That the American government is illegitimate and set up to screw them and their group
specifically.
Ask a Democrat about the Electoral College or 2016… ask a Republican about voter ID or 2020.
Turns out that when you implement inconsistent and capricious rules the groups that benefit are
not nearly as grateful as the groups that suffer come to loath you... repeat that enough times
and everyone hates you.
.
Of course, a suitably tyrannical and totalitarian state could overcome this... And if you think the
US is anywhere near being able to even potentially enforce this with authoritarian methods then
you are completely delusional and out of touch with the numbers.
.
I've read almost a dozen paper now suggesting the US reinstitute a draft or that it would need a
draft in a war with China...
I've not seen a single paper suggest how that could be achieved. My ctrl-F on "Press Gangs" is
strangely somehow always 0/0 in these pieces.
.
America's compliance rate for most things is shockingly low compared to most countries... And
its crime rate is consistently high. Whether it is the homicide rate or vaccination rate, America's
compliance with rules of any kind, legitimate and illegitimate, ten commandments or tax code,
drops off massively around 3 groups of people: African Americans, Latinos, and Whites of
Scots-Irish ie. borderer (Hill billy) descent (a double-digit percentage of all whites).
These people will not comply, in massive numbers, and unless you're willing to start a hot civil
war enacting violence against them for their non-compliance (and immediately start wars in
America's cities, forests, and a war when the cartels see an opening)... If you're not willing to do
that then their non-compliance will immediately cripple every effort to force compliance on the
rest of the population the same way Vax-Mandates had little coercive power in the US compared
to elsewhere.
Also, remember any institutional penalties meant to extort compliance with bureaucracy will be
completely zapped of their sting, both because Jimmy Carter was the president and therefore
We KNOW draft dodging will be pardoned within a decade of the end of the crisis (sooner if the
draft dodging and protests are effective and America loses quickly)... AND because right now
dozens of American cities and states are setting up infrastructure to create entirely new
identities and to live off the grid as an illegal.... sorry,
"undocumented" immigrant.
.
So I ask: Why when I hit ctrl-F do none of these supposedly serious commentators mention
PRESS GANGS!?
Masked men with guns Grabbing Americans and immigrants off the street, kicking the crap out
of them, and throwing them in the back of unmarked white vans to become "soldiers" such as
we've seen in Ukraine is basically the only way a draft could be effectively enforced in this
country.
And of course, because of federalism, the US does not even have men, vans, or ski masks to
do that.
Local counties and states control their police forces and the disproportionately obese and
elderly men who'd be called upon to kidnap teenage boys off the streets or out of their parents’
homes...
And as has been clearly established with sanctuary state laws, California's Drug Legalization,
and all the "Second Amendment Sanctuary" laws now working their way through red states:
These non-federal police forces are under ZERO (0) obligation to cooperate or assist with
federal law enforcement like immigration enforcement, or drug enforcement, or draft
enforcement.
That leaves the police forces the federal government controls itself... Yes. The Feds.
Nazi Germany had 32,000 employees of the Gestapo and 100,000 SS members before they
expanded to become another army on the eastern front...
This for 70 million people, or about 1 secret policeman for every 530 people.
the Postwar East German Stasi had 91,000 regular secret police and 174,000 informal secret
police for a population of 18 million...
About 1 for every 68 people.
And this was to control the famously high trust, high morale, rules-following Germans.
.
By contrast, the FBI has 35,000 employees. The DEA 5000 agents. The Border Patrol 21,000
(and they'd be pretty busy keeping people in). The ATF 5000. 7000 Secret Service...
Hell throw in the US Coast Guard (who'd be damned busy in a naval war) for 47000 (active and
reserve).
And you get maybe 121,000 federal "enforcement" personnel... and probably half to a third of
that accessible and not tied up with other activity.
But taking the full 121k, that's 1 potential secret policeman for 2727 Americans. And realistically
closer to a third of that.
This is why I laugh at Online right-wingers who think there's a fed listening to everything they
say and do and trying to infiltrate their circles at every opportunity... man per man they're some
of the least surveilled people to exist in history. The NSA records everything and listens to
nothing.
And I'll remind you, Americans have guns, lots of them. Many Americans practice
“everyday-carry” of a hidden gun or two on their person.
Sure you might think ordinary Americans would just comply with being dragged off to die in
some miserable pointless war and no parent would seek out revenge on the federal agent who
nabbed them... but one need only look at American policing today to know that the very fact the guns are out
there makes American cops A) A little jumpy, B) Aggressive in how they move C) Rather likely
to just back off and take an L or fail to enforce and D) Unlikely to do much of anything without a
sizeable number of fellow officers backing them up.
You can watch videos where routine evictions are enforced by a half dozen cops! American
police do very little without numbers... And that cripples the number of enforcement actions you
can take.
If you need a partner with you to do anything then your force can do half the things. If you need
a 4 man team… 25%.
Considering there were numerous shootouts in America over mask mandate enforcement, and
Teenage American boys in certain neighborhoods regularly shoot each other over rap lyrics and
Nike shoes... and Teenage girls in Appalachia seemingly murder each other all the time over
boys...
Ya America's hypothetical fed-powered press-gangs would be eternally behind schedule to
conscript any of the numbers they'd need.
Meanwhile, the attempt to do so would almost certainly start a civil war.
.
Beyond that: When the first shootout happens between federal press-gangers what do you
expect regime media and their clapping seal congressmen to do?
Call for a gun ban.
What do you think the Supreme Court would do in the midst of a war when they've repeatedly
shown they'll stay mum on absolutely everything labeled "national security"?
Nothing.
How do you think the federal government will enforce its new gun ban when everyone is already
stretched thin fighting a war or fighting Americans to force them to fight the war?
Very very poorly.
The US military and foreign policy establishment seem hellbent on taking a geostrategic trade
and proxy war that a third-rate British Admiral would be able to win without firing a shot... And
turning it into a hot Amphibious war in southeast Asia they have no way to win, whilst
pre-committing that they'll double down and start a civil war over it which they're guaranteed to
lose.
1/2

2/2

> .
Functionally America is an hourglass-shaped empire.
It's really two empires barely connected.
It is a 19th-century land empire conquered by the American settler populace, and it is a
20th-century Maritime and global empire conquered by the US Navy and the barely closeted
communist bureaucrats of the federal government, along with the foreigners they funded.
These two empires barely interact, indeed America is amongst the most autarkic economies in
the world with 90% of its trade flows isolated to North America.
The place they meet, the narrow center of this hourglass, is Washington DC.
And here's the thing, whereas Washington is consistently able to push about its overseas
maritime empire sending troops and its agents into Afghanistan or Korea or Vietnam or Ukraine
whilst all of its bureaucrats and tax collectors remain safe behind the twin moats of its oceans, and the mountain that is the north pole on its third side... and its completely open border with
Mexico on its fourth, (but no one cares about that)
Whilst Washington remains completely safe from any threat to its 20th-century Maritime
empire...
Washington's 19th-century land empire has it by the throat.
Bin Laden is the only one of Washington's Maritime enemies to actually strike the Imperial city.
And all his followers involved paid with their lives to do so.
The Jan 6th protestors showed up to change the result of an election, forced their way into the
Capitol... and then left, the vast majority of them never facing any consequence... and they
didn't even have to bring guns.
The only shot that day killed Ashley Babbit, an unarmed protestor.
Something the Kaiser, Hitler, and Moa Tse Tung never dreamed with all their armies, was
achieved in one afternoon by ticked-off TrumpenProletariot driving in a few hours from the
surrounding states.
If the 19th-century American land empire feels at all threatened by the 20th-century American
Maritime empire... Most likely they'll descend on DC and sever their only connection with it.
.
So ya, implementing a draft to fight a war with China is about the dumbest military idea
imaginable. One of those things that could actually cause the country to just implode.
So expect the Military and think tank establishment to keep promoting it.
You don't signal your usefulness and loyalty by proposing restrained smart ideas, you get that
promotion by showing your willingness to say the dumbest thing possible if you think it fits your
boss's agenda.
Just pray to god our leaders aren't so senile as to believe the yes men around them...
...
sweet Jesus.

I agree with Kulak's point. However, the point Kulak gives isn't that a draft attempt won't happen--only that it can't be *successfully* enforced by press gangs and isn't meant to be enforced (only said to leaders who are hopefully "not so senile as to believe the yes men around them").

>And if you think the US is anywhere near being able to even potentially enforce this with authoritarian methods

The only authoritarian method Kulak gives a ctrl-F consideration to is 'press gangs,' but that's not the favored method of pressure of the US and hasn't been for decades. Resource denial is. (Remember covid days.)
A next piece ties back to this through a topic Kulak addressed but understandably dismissed because it has so far gone unused.
>The NSA records everything and listens to nothing
True, so far.
Palantir sure is getting a lot of money and access lately.
That issue of daunting fed-to-people ratio Kulak gives loses significance as a barrier when it's shifted to fed-to-program and when the goal isn't enforcement but resource denial.

Understand that I'm not suggesting who they're going to draft nor that it would be successful at all.
I'm only showing that the method of press gangs doesn't seem to be the method chased, so whether press gangs are feasible or not doesn't seem to indicate whether they intend to implement a draft--no more than being unable to swim shows whether one intends to cross a river when that one is building a (sure-to-fall-apart) raft.

I think the most likely direction here is they're gonna kill peoples' bank accounts because it's something they can do from a computer hundreds of miles away and nobody knows who pushed the button.

Since they're talking about this in the context of illegals, I expect they'll probably do the same thing with draft dogers.

However, I also think the AI is going to be used mostly to figure out who to AVOID. Because 90 people will just comply, 9 will hide, and 1 will start a one-man terror war against the state.

And even if it's just 1/100, that's still 3.6 million people, larger than the US army and easily able to overthrow the government if it turns into a civil war. So I think their goal will be to figure out who these people are and leave them the fuck alone...

So basically, safety through fedposting...

Another thing which has not happened yet, but I think it will, is Iran publishing stratigic guidance to Americans in how to effectively dodge the draft and also how to damage infrastructure that is central to the war effort.

Now of course Palentir is going to know who is reading this stuff, and they're going to be reading it themselves to see what it says... And this creates a very weird dynamic.

Lets say Iran fedposts about the weaknesses in a particular hydroelectric installation, and a few hundred thousand people click on it. It's not necessarily clear how many of them read it beginning to end, and how many just clicked for fun... Now you have hundreds of people within an easy drive of that installation who *might* be planning to blow it up.

So now they have to add security personnel to that location.

And then Iran writes another fedpost and shoves it out. It's the Shahid vs. Interceptor dynamic all over again.