this is a very stupid take driven by emotion
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Well, where he's right is that Air Supremacy doesn't really work when the enemy can bomb all of your air strips within a few hours flight away.
Fighter jets don't go very far on a tank of fuel, and even if you're trying to do arial refueling, it's a huge pain to try to have to fly hours to put a bomb on a target and then fly hours back again - and your refueling aircraft as also kind of sitting ducks as well.
Iran has just called into question the whole concept of air-first doctrine.
Fighter jets don't go very far on a tank of fuel, and even if you're trying to do arial refueling, it's a huge pain to try to have to fly hours to put a bomb on a target and then fly hours back again - and your refueling aircraft as also kind of sitting ducks as well.
Iran has just called into question the whole concept of air-first doctrine.
@cjd I'm a huge skeptic and critic of air power but using this war as a litmus test is ridiculous. this was supposed to be a quick little raid, not a full blown total war, and that's how it was planned and executed
relying on air power without ground forces invading simultaneously is extremely stupid and has literally never worked in the entire history of military aviation. didn't need this war to learn that
relying on air power without ground forces invading simultaneously is extremely stupid and has literally never worked in the entire history of military aviation. didn't need this war to learn that
> this was supposed to be a quick little raid, not a full blown total war
Over the past couple of decades I've heard a million variants of "we weren't really fighting to win" - particularly in relation to Afghanistan. I have to admit I'm kind of jaded about it.
When you enter some kind of a conflict and you come out worse off than you started, the correct word for that is Losing.
I think we learn something in every war. What we learned this time is that if a hypersonic can get past interceptors and C-RAM, then it can deny naval access and destroy nearby bases, which completely undermines an air first strategy.
It also challenges how you would even get infantry and equipment into the area to stage a ground invasion. You can't sail too close if they can just shoot your ships.
If interceptors, C-RAM, and DEW can't be improved to the point of beating hypersonics, this might be the end of war as we know it...
Over the past couple of decades I've heard a million variants of "we weren't really fighting to win" - particularly in relation to Afghanistan. I have to admit I'm kind of jaded about it.
When you enter some kind of a conflict and you come out worse off than you started, the correct word for that is Losing.
I think we learn something in every war. What we learned this time is that if a hypersonic can get past interceptors and C-RAM, then it can deny naval access and destroy nearby bases, which completely undermines an air first strategy.
It also challenges how you would even get infantry and equipment into the area to stage a ground invasion. You can't sail too close if they can just shoot your ships.
If interceptors, C-RAM, and DEW can't be improved to the point of beating hypersonics, this might be the end of war as we know it...
@cjd @deprecated_ii >an air-first strategy
status of the great Iranian popular uprising of oppressed liberal young people yearning for freedom (January - March, 2026): COMPLETELY FORGOTTEN
status of the great Iranian popular uprising of oppressed liberal young people yearning for freedom (January - March, 2026): COMPLETELY FORGOTTEN
IDK if that was an actual strategy or a propaganda piece to get public buy-in. I would hope that no military is actually that dumb, but mistaking your own propaganda for intelligence is a known problem...
@cjd @deprecated_ii Israel wasted a lot of time blowing up police boxes in Tehran is reduce Iran's ability to control any uprising, and at every stage of the conflict there have been appeals to the public for an uprising, and popular uprisings with a great deal of foreign support aren't new. Even just a couple of years ago Ukrainians showed up in Georgia to try and pull one off, and Ukraine in 2014 is a successful example of a coup like this.
Iran has large minority groups and separatist groups that could be mobilized, like the Kurds and the Baluchis and the Azeris.
It might be harder to believe if you haven't heard of any theory where it'd work:
1. foreign money pays people to protest
2. foreign terrorists sneak into the crowds and snipe both police and protesters to turn the crowd violent
3. coincidentally the government is decapitated
4. the government loses legitimacy and already compromised leaders step out to gracefully surrender to the mob. In any case the country falters and can't mount a military resistance
The big failure here was (3), the decapitation came a month after #1 and #2 started, because Trump called off the strikes at the last moment and called in more assets to support the op while Iran crushed the protests. And the called-off op was already late, probably surprised by how effective Iran's suppression was with the internet shutdown and Starlink hunts.
The USS Tripoli just today got into theater. We didn't have any ground assets ready to move because the plan was to support Mossad's ground assets in the country.
Iran has large minority groups and separatist groups that could be mobilized, like the Kurds and the Baluchis and the Azeris.
It might be harder to believe if you haven't heard of any theory where it'd work:
1. foreign money pays people to protest
2. foreign terrorists sneak into the crowds and snipe both police and protesters to turn the crowd violent
3. coincidentally the government is decapitated
4. the government loses legitimacy and already compromised leaders step out to gracefully surrender to the mob. In any case the country falters and can't mount a military resistance
The big failure here was (3), the decapitation came a month after #1 and #2 started, because Trump called off the strikes at the last moment and called in more assets to support the op while Iran crushed the protests. And the called-off op was already late, probably surprised by how effective Iran's suppression was with the internet shutdown and Starlink hunts.
The USS Tripoli just today got into theater. We didn't have any ground assets ready to move because the plan was to support Mossad's ground assets in the country.
@cjd @deprecated_ii a big argument against the uprisings just being propaganda for our consumption, was how long it got talked about after this war started. There's no more need for public buy-in after Iran attacked US bases all over the region, now we're just "defending ourselves", or as Rubio put it very early: we knew Israel was going to provoke this response, so we needed to preempt the response and join Israel on the attack.
But it was two solid weeks of talking about an Iranian uprising, and only in the third week was there news like "uh ok intelligence agencies have evaluated this as having a 0.00% chance of happening"
But it was two solid weeks of talking about an Iranian uprising, and only in the third week was there news like "uh ok intelligence agencies have evaluated this as having a 0.00% chance of happening"
Well, there's another problem which seems to be universal to advanced militaries. They always seem to stumble on their own propaganda, mistakes it for real intel and then go on to poison their decision process with it. I think a lot of this is how they were even planning for Russia's imminent collapse in the first months of the Ukraine war...
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