@john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger If the admin made a one-sided truce that ended in 2015, that would help explain why the murder rate dropped so sharply in 2015.
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@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger it wouldn't explain why it consistently dropped since then, to levels below even before the truce, before bukele started doing arrests
@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger no, it might explain a drop to pre-truce levels. What did it might has been treating them as terrorists, definately not arrests. You can see the trend following the classification continue unchanged despite mass incarceration.
@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger 2012-2014 was the gang truce era, you posted it. Sharp, almost exponential curve to the peak in 2015. In 2015, the second leftist government classifies gangs as terrorists and make youth outreach programs. From the peak in 2015, theres a straight line going down to the bottom until today. The curve does not change despite an increase in arrests later on.
The murder rate is lower than it was in 2012 in 2017. Had it just been and undoing of a truce, the graph would've stayed at 2012 levels. Put it kept plummetting, in a constant fashion.
The murder rate is lower than it was in 2012 in 2017. Had it just been and undoing of a truce, the graph would've stayed at 2012 levels. Put it kept plummetting, in a constant fashion.
@pernia @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger why. Why would it have stayed at pre-truce levels. What’s giving you this impression?
@pernia @WandererUber @john_darksoul @nugger maybe it kept going down because they were putting criminals in jail, keeping them in jail, and not letting them use cell phones?
@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger well yea, but if they were putting more criminals in jail, the graphs would've shown that. And i think it does, the arrests go up ever so slightly as time moves on until bukele. They didnt let them use cellphones ever i don't think. I think just based on what chatgpt told you the youth outreach and terrorist classification did the most, unless there's more policies its not covering. Probably terrorist charges are gonna stick much more than others, which would support what ur saying about keeping criminals in jail.
@pernia @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger What matters is the state in which they're kept in prison as well. If the truce had never been made and a successful crackdown had been made earlier, we likely would have seen a straight trend downward for the murder rate.
It's important to note that after 2014 the government added more and more measures to combat the gangs.
Important to note that the youth outreach program was one of the cornerstones of the truce era, and it did jack shit, because the problem wasn't "the youth" it was the gangs.
Bukele is right to point out that a very, very small % of the overall population is committing virtually all of the crime. If that segment of the population is completely rounded up and imprisoned, the country becomes safer than the US.
It's important to note that after 2014 the government added more and more measures to combat the gangs.
Important to note that the youth outreach program was one of the cornerstones of the truce era, and it did jack shit, because the problem wasn't "the youth" it was the gangs.
Bukele is right to point out that a very, very small % of the overall population is committing virtually all of the crime. If that segment of the population is completely rounded up and imprisoned, the country becomes safer than the US.
@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger no, before the truce the murder rate stayed constant at around ~70 per 1000. There were no signs of it dropping. There were probably more measures after 2014, but i don't think you nor i know em lol. So I'm hedging on the terrorist classification. Its very clear at this point bukeles arrests did nothing and were done way too late.
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@pernia @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger "it's very clear" no it's not. The murder rate reached its lowest point following the mass arrests by Bukele. There is no evidence to suggest that the world-famous low rate of crime in El Salvador is attributable to anything other than Bukele's mass incarceration program. If you want to credit the previous governmnent as well, you can, but you'll also notice that incarceration rates were higher post-2014 than pre-2014, when the rate dropped steeply. All of this supports mass-incarceration. No credible alternative is present anywhere in this graph.
@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger bro, take a ruler. The drop is a straight line from 2015. Had bukele done something, it wouldnt ve straight anymore. The drop wouldve become steeper. It in fact is not.
@pernia @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger Here's a ruler. Which inverse correlation do you want. You pick.
@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger learn to draw a line or best fit. Every point in the blue is below your best fit line.
@pernia @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger So show me the line of best fit. Show me the inverse correlation in a third color.
@Griffith @john_darksoul @WandererUber @nugger the first one is a little better, the second one doesn't do the situation justice because it completely ignores outliers (like the massive peak during the truce era, and the massive increase in arrrests after bukele).
If i may be frank asking me to plot the inverse correlation is a little much for this thread xd. I'd need to get the values into an excel, etc. In either case, I'm not arguing that there's an inverse correlation between arrests and murder rates. we can see the opposite, the arrests increase at a constant rate ever so slightly, and murders drop overall. Its important to note however, during that period of constant rate of arrests, the murder rate fluctuates wildly, increasing erratically and then dropping in 2015, so the correlation is weak.
What I'm saying is that there is *no* correlation between bukele's arrests in 2020 and the murder rate.
I drew a best fit line in red that is straight. Half of this trend started before bukele, the other half continued under bukele. It looks more like a decaying curve after looking at it more closely so I drew that in orange.
Had bukele's arrests actually had an effect, we would see a sharp decline in murder rate proportional to the sharp increase in arrests, but that's clearly not the case.
Perhaps a previous policy bukele had in 2015 *did* start or help the trend of decline of murder rates, but his policy of mass incarceration post 2020 did not.
If i may be frank asking me to plot the inverse correlation is a little much for this thread xd. I'd need to get the values into an excel, etc. In either case, I'm not arguing that there's an inverse correlation between arrests and murder rates. we can see the opposite, the arrests increase at a constant rate ever so slightly, and murders drop overall. Its important to note however, during that period of constant rate of arrests, the murder rate fluctuates wildly, increasing erratically and then dropping in 2015, so the correlation is weak.
What I'm saying is that there is *no* correlation between bukele's arrests in 2020 and the murder rate.
I drew a best fit line in red that is straight. Half of this trend started before bukele, the other half continued under bukele. It looks more like a decaying curve after looking at it more closely so I drew that in orange.
Had bukele's arrests actually had an effect, we would see a sharp decline in murder rate proportional to the sharp increase in arrests, but that's clearly not the case.
Perhaps a previous policy bukele had in 2015 *did* start or help the trend of decline of murder rates, but his policy of mass incarceration post 2020 did not.