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@TrevorGoodchild I thought this determined when they had their first child but this is just the age of parents determined by genetic mutation and averaged, so this says almost nothing about the mating habits unless I can find the distribution somewhere
@TrevorGoodchild WELL IS THIS FIRST CHILD OR JUST AVERAGE AVERAGE
BECAUSE THAT'S PRETTY LOW FOR AVERAGE AVERAGE IF PEOPLE WERE HAVING A KID EVERY OTHER YEAR UNTIL THEY COULDN'T
BECAUSE THAT'S PRETTY LOW FOR AVERAGE AVERAGE IF PEOPLE WERE HAVING A KID EVERY OTHER YEAR UNTIL THEY COULDN'T
@WandererUber Yeah I need to find the dataset. But it makes a bit of sense with late menarche due to nutrition (calories haven't always been easy to come by)
@TrevorGoodchild reading the paper rn and for some fucking reason they used AI. what the fuck dude
>Data on de novo mutations from 1247 Icelandic trios (14) were used to train a model that predicts the effect of both maternal and paternal age on the mutation spectrum.
they could have literally just done a bit of statistics instead... Why did they introduce randomness. are they stupid?
>Data on de novo mutations from 1247 Icelandic trios (14) were used to train a model that predicts the effect of both maternal and paternal age on the mutation spectrum.
they could have literally just done a bit of statistics instead... Why did they introduce randomness. are they stupid?
@TrevorGoodchild >Data on de novo mutations from 1247 Icelandic trios (14) were used to train a model that predicts the effect of both maternal and paternal age on the mutation spectrum. (B) Data from 25.3 million segregating variants whose date of origin was estimated using GEVA (15) were used to assess the mutation spectrum at different periods in the past. The mutation spectrum from each time period (bin) was used as input to the model from (A) to estimate the generation interval for males and females. (C) Differences in the frequency of each of the six different mutation types through time, as compared to the most recent time period (smoothed lines from local regression). Figure S15 presents the absolute frequencies of the same mutation data over time.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abm7047
SO ARE THEY TRAINING A MODEL ON GENOMES FROM 1247 SAMPLES FROM ICELAND
THEN THEY'RE GETTING A GIANT SAMPLE OF GENOMES FROM SOME DATABASE AND APPLYING THE MODEL BUILT ON THE ICELANDIC SAMPLE TO THEM
I DONT KNOOOOOOOOW
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abm7047
SO ARE THEY TRAINING A MODEL ON GENOMES FROM 1247 SAMPLES FROM ICELAND
THEN THEY'RE GETTING A GIANT SAMPLE OF GENOMES FROM SOME DATABASE AND APPLYING THE MODEL BUILT ON THE ICELANDIC SAMPLE TO THEM
I DONT KNOOOOOOOOW
@TrevorGoodchild I'm a little rusty on how biologists do things but is THIS the confidence interval? Three+ years?
This makes the dataset a bit useless, no?
Again, rusty, but doesn't that mean basically any person from the dataset could potentially have been born to parents three to five years younger (or older), AND they don't even know who's siblings, whos the firstborn, etc...
Then the only thing this entire study tells us is that the average male-female gap was about 7 years...
This makes the dataset a bit useless, no?
Again, rusty, but doesn't that mean basically any person from the dataset could potentially have been born to parents three to five years younger (or older), AND they don't even know who's siblings, whos the firstborn, etc...
Then the only thing this entire study tells us is that the average male-female gap was about 7 years...
@nugger "Dear doctor wang me and my fedi colleagues recently came across your study on human generation times. We noticed you were using AI for some fucking insane reason and also the data seems very haphazardly put together if you don't mind us saying so.
Doesn't this make the entire study total niggercoal?
Kind regards,
fedi"
Doesn't this make the entire study total niggercoal?
Kind regards,
fedi"
@WandererUber DID HE DO IT TO SECURE A GRANT OR SOMETHING?
LIKE, WHAT WAS THIS EVEN FOR?
LIKE, WHAT WAS THIS EVEN FOR?
@nugger "surely this faulty result won't be repeated in news articles and online debates for decades to come..."
>We noticed you were using AI for some fucking insane reason
I know a Labubu who knows a Labubu who has an insider perspective on the academic/scientific publishing industry and he tells me pretty much everything is written by AI now, especially if it’s from India or China (which is if not a majority of papers then it’s certainly enough that the industry would collapse if these papers were categorically rejected for common sense racism/anti AI reasons) they typically sign some disclosure that says something like “I super promise i just used ai to help me with structuring sentences and with grammar because english is not my first language please understand, the scientific work was all done for real properly by the authors” and nobody asks too many questions because if anyone starts asking a lot of questions they’ll probably go under.
I know a Labubu who knows a Labubu who has an insider perspective on the academic/scientific publishing industry and he tells me pretty much everything is written by AI now, especially if it’s from India or China (which is if not a majority of papers then it’s certainly enough that the industry would collapse if these papers were categorically rejected for common sense racism/anti AI reasons) they typically sign some disclosure that says something like “I super promise i just used ai to help me with structuring sentences and with grammar because english is not my first language please understand, the scientific work was all done for real properly by the authors” and nobody asks too many questions because if anyone starts asking a lot of questions they’ll probably go under.
Oh sorry I used grok to summarize the thread because there were too many words for me to understand, I’ll shoot elon a bug report to let him know grok was a little sloppy with the summary
@TrevorGoodchild @WandererUber Births to juvenile females tend to have high mortality rates due to lack of maternal resources and lack of maternal experience. You‘ll find the same pattern in other primate species and other mammals more generally.
@AuntNorma @WandererUber The sweet spot seems to be the female 20s. Earlier has a complication rate, likely due to unfinished physical development. After 30 the fertility dive kicks in. 35+ is geriatric pregnancy.
@TrevorGoodchild @AuntNorma the problem is this study doesn't help much in proving that.
People keep saying what you're saying and it's probably reasonable.
But we can't really prove it without human experimentation or more historical data.
You could also easily make a case that pre-agricultural humans accumulated a lot of damage once they hit adulthood, meaning a woman in her 20s would have other disadvantages in pregnancy.
And
>unfinished physical development
is still really hard to estimate too just because white girls in industrial society mature later and malnourished girls also do, that's hardly a full picture
People keep saying what you're saying and it's probably reasonable.
But we can't really prove it without human experimentation or more historical data.
You could also easily make a case that pre-agricultural humans accumulated a lot of damage once they hit adulthood, meaning a woman in her 20s would have other disadvantages in pregnancy.
And
>unfinished physical development
is still really hard to estimate too just because white girls in industrial society mature later and malnourished girls also do, that's hardly a full picture