Egregoros · Phoenix Framework

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Caleb James DeLisle

A US boots-on-the-ground war in Iran is highly likely to end with both sides losing.

The IRGC can't sustain against the bruit force of the US military, but the US military will get mired in Hell Mountains and end up losing to random chaotic goat herder tribes (probably Taliban that crosses the border lol).

And if this happens, it will most probably be the end of the US as a "world empire", nobody's going to really take them seriously anymore.

Replies

Replying to @cjd@pkteerium.xyz

gentoobro

@gentoobro@shitpost.cloud remote

The wildcard with Iran is that they have tremendous internal problems. A fair portion of the population, and even the military, might defect to, frankly, anyone at all that invaded. Who knows though. The US would certainly mismanage it and lose control of the puppet state within a decade or two.

As for the empire, it was already shown to be a joke with Afghanistan. That doesn't mean the US can't lash out and cause serious damage, especially for small, poor, retarded countries. The real line where countries start ignoring the US's threats is when they invade a non-shithole and get actively repelled and have to quickly retreat out of the country.

Replying to @gentoobro@shitpost.cloud

Caleb James DeLisle

@cjd@pkteerium.xyz remote

> within a decade or two

More likely a couple of years... Same character arc as Afghanistan with random Taliban popping up and managing a Real Land Registry and Real Courts underground while the US tries desperately to prop up the most corrupt government imaginable.