Egregoros

@john_darksoul >the fear of creating a martyr is vastly overstated
yeah well exactly like you said, not by this admin at least.
Getting blown up with a missile when you're a 83 year old man asleep in his bed and getting your family killed in the process isn't exactly a valiant death on the battlefield.
But even if it was, there' still no guarantee that "this time it'll be different" and the brown people that Israel has been simultaneously starving and baiting with the luxuries of a Western lifestyle will just unify into a terrifying fighting force instead of just fracturing and everyone taking what they can.
It's just not that easy.
They isolated Assad, was he able to rally people to his cause? No
They caught Saddam and killed hiim, was he? No
What about the six million Iranian commanders they killed? No
Yeah this guy is a bigger fish, than them, so?

It has to be seen if they have the stomach for it. Like I said, they're probably better than the others, they're Persian like the Taliban, so maybe.
Even they never managed to make Israel regret it though, just the US/NATO. Not like that changes anything if Israel can still just send us into the next one though.

@DrRyanSkelton yeah exactly dude
and all this talk about exhausting munitions. That's way more effective if you do it immediately and then demand concessions than to drag it out.
Unless they're stalling to build two nukes in the next weeks, they're cooked. That's the only thing that puts them on equal ground with Israel, otherwise they're just going to nuke Iran if it gets too hairy.
No idea what they're thinking. Seems like they still think they can get a withdrawal. Like bro 💀

@FreeinTX @DrRyanSkelton >would nuking Iran unite hundreds of millions of Muslims around the world against the jew nation
see OP for my opinion about this coal
>Why would you think that Iran is concerned about getting nuked?
because if you get nuked you die and your shit gets destroyed. Hello???

>Do you believe that nuking Iran is going to change anything for the better for Israel?
The scenario was Iran exhausts Israeli missile defense and starts pelting them with rockets that all actually hit. That could make Israel pull out the nukes in response because that would mean they have their back to the wall. Sure it will piss off the world even harder, but it would save their asses. My point was that anticipating THAT and building nukes on your own (one to demonstrate capability and one to fire at Israel) is the only way stalling to exhaust makes any sense. Otherwise you would just do it asap and put the screws on while you have leverage, before they replenish/bomb you to death

@Griffith I'm not sure that's the way I see it, the Israelis provoked a lot of that and they provoked Iran at least twice in the mean time, once even under Biden. They've been baiting the US into this conflict all this time.
The initiative was never with the Iranians.
They similarly provoked and pushed Hamas for years before Al-Aqsa Flood. So I can't say with confidence that "taking a few Jews hostage because you think they will restrain themselves to get them back and then get your entire country leveled and firebombed, your people displaced and everything taken over by Jews" is exactly a High IQ play here.

"Ah yes, the Jews are simply killing everyone instead of negotiating for the hostages. All according to plan!"
"Ah yes, the Jews bombed the Ayatollah and his family while he was asleep in his bed. All according to plan!"

That's not to say I would do any better or that they had options, it just seems like a bit too much cope for my liking.

@WandererUber @DrRyanSkelton On Saturday, Trump announced an operation that was to last 4 days. Now, it's expected to last 4-5 weeks. Soon, it will be ground forces of about 2500 "spec ops" to sweep up and oversee regieme change. It will grow, secretly, to 25,000 by 2028. In 2028, Vance will campaign on getting elected to "finish the job." Newsom will escalate the ground force to 100,000 troops for a decisive victory. 20 years later, a Trump-esq figure will call Trump an idiot for getting us involved in a war that cost us $5 Trillion and got 100,000 Americans and 2 million Iranians killed, and use that to get elected. By then, Israel will be a hegemonic super power demanding Turkey be thrown out of NATO so their Kurdistan Allies can invade without a conflict of interest.

@WandererUber I know they've taken heavy losses, but I don't think that was avoidable. At the end of the day, defending against the US airforce is hard. ZOG is a machine and there are lots of ways to apply critical pressure to that machine. It's worth noting that ZOG is still laboring under the burden of the Ru-Ukr war, and still has to keep one eye on Taiwan as all of this is happening. Which, btw, I'm sure is one of many reasons US generals have (allegedly) been threatening to resign. Trump is talking about pulling ammo from Asia, which will gimp the US if a conflict there goes hot.
In a direct sense, maybe this means we'll all suffer in the short term as our system is strained, but maybe in the long term, we'll get freedom.

@WandererUber I dont know how he claims that attacking other neutral parties will cause islumic unity.

I think the divides of the muslim world is deeper then most christens and I bet if a Protestant country launched missiles into a catholic country; unity would not be on mind.

I dont know if the fabled "trained kurds" can scrap together 90 iq points; but I dont think iran used its mountain fortress if they are releasing ai kill footage. I also dont think it matters if they succeed, what matters is if oil goes to cuba and china, and drones to russia.

@WandererUber Tactical nukes create more of an ecological disaster than airburst nukes because they are driven into the ground and exploded. All that dirt and debris become irradiated and sent up into the atmosphere.

Why would they do that? Because generals and politicians don't know a fucking thing about nuclear explosions and could care less about the potential after effects. Hubris is the most deadly sin.

Realistically, it's unlikely that they will actually use nukes, and more strongly prefer the US just invade. Israel has nothing to lose with a US ground invasion.

@FreeinTX well that wasn't my point, my point was why use s bomb with the most side effects when there are ones with fewer. I'm not going to split hairs over the exact capabilities of all the different weapons in nuclear arsenals with you, sorry.

>ground invasion
recall that my scenario involved them with their back to the wall because Iran was raining missiles on them and had exhausted their defense. That's a hypothetical in its own right, but I never said they prefer nukes over a ground invasion.
I said the only reason not to exhaust Israels defensive capabilities now would be if Iran anticipates them using nukes in response to that and therefore is stalling for time to get their own nukes ready to prevent it.

@WandererUber Iran is not going to get a nuke, especially now. Getting a nuke is a preventative measure to avoid being attacked. Countries don't aquire nukes to use them. They get nukes to avoid being attacked.

And, my point was the Israel would not actually use nukes because there are other, less destructive measures.

What's most likely to happen, going forward, is a US ground invasion like we saw in Iraq. Decades of giving defense contractors hundreds of billions of dollars, no real desire to "win" or any real definition of what it means to win, and a regieme change that leaves Israel as a world superpower, and the Iranian people destitute.

Turkey will be next.