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"An attack on Kharg Island, however, would provide the media impact Trump is looking for. There would be no threat of FPV drone strikes from the mainland due to the distance, and the island itself is small (21 sq km) with a relatively limited Iranian military presence. "
HOLLY FUCK Does the us actually believe that? The shortest range iranian fpv drone has a range of 40-50kms. It can be launched from the iranian shore and reach every part of the island.

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Iran was already giving China a sweetheart deal. As to what can be done about it - at this point, lots of things.

It's obvious that the US can level every inch of Iran's oil production, and they can certainly damage the rest of the persian gulf's oil.

If people believe that Iran is going to do that anyway, they'll end up blaming Iran for a retaliation they do against the US if the US attacks first, which ultimately wouldn't be a good situation for them.

We don't know if it can end it completely, that depends on a lot of factors. Since the intercepts of the Iranian attacks has been not 100, what they have left versus the amount of targets they have matters a lot in terms of that calculation.

Russia is rearming them daily from the Caspian sea with chink stuff. Iran has replanished most of the drones it has used through that route alone (hence the kikes attempting strikes in the Caspian see). Chinks are making drones for them like they're funko pops. They're not running out. Ever. And just the money iran made until it closed tbe straits alongside what Russia made can pay for hundreds of thousands of drones.

Yeah, on Zerohedge some retarded article talked about kikes targeting the "smuggling" route between Russia and Iran at the Caspian.

It's two sovereign nations trading, that's not "smuggling". Of course weapon deliveries to the ukraine are not "smuggling", that's "aid". I hate these word-twisting assholes.
I don't think it's clear at all that this is actually bad strategy. Just like the US, these countries are all made up of a bunch of different demographics. So when the Saudi government says something, it means about as much to the average Saudi as it means to you when Trump says something.

Iran's goal is to cause revolutions in the GCC countries because the royal families are not super well liked by the normal people there...

We don't really know if this is gonna work out for them, but we also don't know that it won't...
that's a nice idea and all, but I don't think it's well thought out.

I don't think this is a "make a god bleed" scenario because the US was bloodied pretty substantially in Iraq and they didn't leave for a fucking forever, which works against "just do this one rash thing and you'll immediately win"
indeed, they are certainly willing to use Iran as a proxy, at worst just to get a free test of their equiment.

But just like people get mad about the US being a bad ally, Iran also might need to be careful assuming that support is infinite.
>you're assuming that they will have to make no choices between ukraine and iran.

That is wildly theoretical. The trends are currently going in the opposite direction.

China will also support Iran. Possibly even Turkey if for no other reason because they don't want to be next.
Fighting Ukraine is a cost for Russia, they're doing it because they're hoping for future benefit... But supporting Iran is basically a profit venture.

They send some weapons, and maybe Iran even pays for them since they have toll booth cash... And out of this, they get three things:
1. Oil price goes up, so they're making bank selling oil
2. US expending resources in Iran so they can't give them to Ukraine
3. Nobody is paying any attention to Ukraine, so Russia can just bomb the crap out of them without making any news - and no news means no will to provide support
yes, and they're talking about buying greek islands and all kinds of dumb shit.

The thing to note is that just because they have insane plans it doesn't mean they work out.

The *critical* problem is that we already were bought into the Iran bullshit which none of these fucking gay boomer politicians will back away from.

Any fomenting they have done anywhere else, like Syria has been met with extremely limited support from the government and nothing at all from people. Turkey is going to be worse, and they're already in NATO to boot.
IMO, taking out gulf state infrastructure in a retaliatory move will be blamed on the US, not Iran, by most of the world.
Boomers, and what‘s left of MAGA, will be up in arms but the rest of the world will laugh at them.
When a global depression hits as a result, no one will be laughing, but most of the world will still blame the US.

The US may serve up an even better opportunity with a ground invasion.
Make just one of the gulf states uninhabitable, especially if they hit desalination.
Send the message, make everyone flee that country (no power, no water) and leave it for dead.
But the rest of the rest of the region infrastructure remains intact (for now).
Looking through the 'rules of war' (lol, lmao) it would seem that 'don't fucking pretend to negotiate and then suddenly assassinate the negotiating counterparty' is a pretty big no-no

So no one gets to complain about reprisals. And nobody gets to go home
"Rules of war" don't really work the way people think they do.

The reason why armies follow what appear to be "rules" is very simply because not following them is counterproductive to their goals.

Governments are nothing without an air of legitimacy, so the hearts-and-minds battle is positively central to any campaign.

It's quite plausible that the reason why Iran has not hit the Israeli desalination plant is because there are enough Muslim Palestinians who would die if Israel ran out of water, that it would harm Iran's standing with the wider Muslim community. It has nothing to do with Geneva Convention saying that civilian infrastructure is a no-no.

But this doesn't mean that they can't cluster-bomb Tel Aviv. That's also a "war crime", but it's not one that they really have to care about. Same goes for Israel using white phosphorus in Lebanon, it's a war crime, but not one that they really have to care about.

Russia was VERY gentlemanly in the early days of the Ukraine war, and this was because the international community was watching them, and public support for helping Ukraine was conditioned a lot on public perception of Russia as a terror state. But 4 years later nobody is watching anymore, so they now feel that destroying Ukranian power and heating infrastructure is not going to have any real down-sides for them.