Egregoros

if there is demand destruction, people will care.

indeed. and it seems like china may want to get back to business, but we'll see how much

right. and that's why the whole long term status of them running a tollbooth is not operational.

US (continent) most likely benefits from collapse of the US (empire) because America is mostly an isolated economy.

Yep, the USA is essentially two political entities, a land empire and a maritime empire, and they hate each other and have contrary interests.

Why? The arab states are sunni. And they have no power. Only what America has. Iran doesn't want to be on their good side ffs they've been hating each other for 1300 years+. And iran cant just damage the arabs oil production. It can end it completely.

Iran's vision is to smooth over issues between Shia and Sunni, and create an islamic state which rules the whole middle east.

We don't know if it can end it completely, that depends on a lot of factors. Since the intercepts of the Iranian attacks has been not 100, what they have left versus the amount of targets they have matters a lot in terms of that calculation.

Russia is rearming them daily from the Caspian sea with chink stuff. Iran has replanished most of the drones it has used through that route alone (hence the kikes attempting strikes in the Caspian see). Chinks are making drones for them like they're funko pops. They're not running out. Ever. And just the money iran made until it closed tbe straits alongside what Russia made can pay for hundreds of thousands of drones.

it feels like people need to be realistic about supply lines. Never is a very very big word

True. Zog should stop believing iran is running out of stuff.

Running out is relative. Who is running out of what first makes a yuge difference.

America will never run out of money. But it simply can't physically produce enough stuff. That can't be changed in any significant time frame in the foreseeable future. Iran won't run out of anything unless Russia and china decide or are forced somehow to not rearm/resupply them. That's the situation.

remember supply lines don't care how much stuff you have sitting on one end

True.

Indeed. I'm just not sure that long term a small supply of drones is going to be an effective weapon.

True, but I don't think it's a good bet to think we will have more luck cutting off Iranian supply than Russia has had with Ukraine. That's going on 4 years now.

that's a good point to compare against for sure. They don't need to last 4 years in any case; but it's also not a ground war (as of now)

I think from Iran's standpoint, attacking other neighbors isn't an effective short to mid term tactic

There are sizeable shia minorities in those nations.

Russia loses iran and America plops forces in the Caspian sea from an impenetrable mountain fort. That's another Ukraine right there only worse. Theyll stick with iran as long as physically possible just for that reason alone.

you're assuming that they will have to make no choices between ukraine and iran. I am assuming that is possible and they will choose ukraine.

Its America they can bleed badly. Its israel. That's the thing here.

I think they already did make Israel bleed last year, which is in part why we are here.

Nah. Israel would do this anyway. Jews aren't reactive. Neither saddam nor gaddafi fucked with them before they fucked with them. Nothing anyone does affects jew plans to destroy them. Except fighting and pogroming them of course

I mean, jews are paranoid, and paranoia will absolutely trigger reactive behavior. ( As well as just straight up fake shit )

We're here because of Greater Israel. If Iran loses, we'll be there against Turkey. Isreal already stated this openly.

Perhaps they should stop letting their countries be used for US staging attacks on Iran then

What’s funny is there will be tribal groups nearly unaffected because they never modernized

if we're going to get rid of all the rules of war, a lot of people are going to have a really, really bad time.