HOLLY FUCK Does the us actually believe that? The shortest range iranian fpv drone has a range of 40-50kms. It can be launched from the iranian shore and reach every part of the island.
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13HOLLY FUCK Does the us actually believe that? The shortest range iranian fpv drone has a range of 40-50kms. It can be launched from the iranian shore and reach every part of the island.
But, the Strait is an even worse option. Really 'Scylla and Charybdis' vibes
that's assuming the invade it. What happens if the US just decides to destroy every piece of Iran's oil infrastructure
They are perfectly capable of doing this and have said/demonstrated as much
Iran doesn't need oil infrastructure, and destroying GCC infra isn't in their interest. They can just switch to operating a toll booth, they don't need to produce any oil.
as I've mentioned before, I don't think the world is keen on Iran doing a mafia tactic on the globe and will look the other way if a bigger bully roughs them up.
Iran will give a sweetheart deal to China. What anybody else can do about it?
It's obvious that the US can level every inch of Iran's oil production, and they can certainly damage the rest of the persian gulf's oil.
If people believe that Iran is going to do that anyway, they'll end up blaming Iran for a retaliation they do against the US if the US attacks first, which ultimately wouldn't be a good situation for them.
Why? The arab states are sunni. And they have no power. Only what America has. Iran doesn't want to be on their good side ffs they've been hating each other for 1300 years+. And iran cant just damage the arabs oil production. It can end it completely.
We don't know if it can end it completely, that depends on a lot of factors. Since the intercepts of the Iranian attacks has been not 100, what they have left versus the amount of targets they have matters a lot in terms of that calculation.
Russia is rearming them daily from the Caspian sea with chink stuff. Iran has replanished most of the drones it has used through that route alone (hence the kikes attempting strikes in the Caspian see). Chinks are making drones for them like they're funko pops. They're not running out. Ever. And just the money iran made until it closed tbe straits alongside what Russia made can pay for hundreds of thousands of drones.
It's two sovereign nations trading, that's not "smuggling". Of course weapon deliveries to the ukraine are not "smuggling", that's "aid". I hate these word-twisting assholes.
it feels like people need to be realistic about supply lines. Never is a very very big word
True, but I don't think it's a good bet to think we will have more luck cutting off Iranian supply than Russia has had with Ukraine. That's going on 4 years now.
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34that's a good point to compare against for sure. They don't need to last 4 years in any case; but it's also not a ground war (as of now)
I think from Iran's standpoint, attacking other neighbors isn't an effective short to mid term tactic
Iran's goal is to cause revolutions in the GCC countries because the royal families are not super well liked by the normal people there...
We don't really know if this is gonna work out for them, but we also don't know that it won't...
There are sizeable shia minorities in those nations.
I don't think this is a "make a god bleed" scenario because the US was bloodied pretty substantially in Iraq and they didn't leave for a fucking forever, which works against "just do this one rash thing and you'll immediately win"
Neither are China and Russia (in the other direction). And they are in Iran's corner, if for no other reason just to fuck with the US.
But just like people get mad about the US being a bad ally, Iran also might need to be careful assuming that support is infinite.
Russia loses iran and America plops forces in the Caspian sea from an impenetrable mountain fort. That's another Ukraine right there only worse. Theyll stick with iran as long as physically possible just for that reason alone.
you're assuming that they will have to make no choices between ukraine and iran. I am assuming that is possible and they will choose ukraine.
That is wildly theoretical. The trends are currently going in the opposite direction.
China will also support Iran. Possibly even Turkey if for no other reason because they don't want to be next.
They send some weapons, and maybe Iran even pays for them since they have toll booth cash... And out of this, they get three things:
1. Oil price goes up, so they're making bank selling oil
2. US expending resources in Iran so they can't give them to Ukraine
3. Nobody is paying any attention to Ukraine, so Russia can just bomb the crap out of them without making any news - and no news means no will to provide support
Its America they can bleed badly. Its israel. That's the thing here.
I think they already did make Israel bleed last year, which is in part why we are here.
Nah. Israel would do this anyway. Jews aren't reactive. Neither saddam nor gaddafi fucked with them before they fucked with them. Nothing anyone does affects jew plans to destroy them. Except fighting and pogroming them of course
I mean, jews are paranoid, and paranoia will absolutely trigger reactive behavior. ( As well as just straight up fake shit )
We're here because of Greater Israel. If Iran loses, we'll be there against Turkey. Isreal already stated this openly.
The thing to note is that just because they have insane plans it doesn't mean they work out.
The *critical* problem is that we already were bought into the Iran bullshit which none of these fucking gay boomer politicians will back away from.
Any fomenting they have done anywhere else, like Syria has been met with extremely limited support from the government and nothing at all from people. Turkey is going to be worse, and they're already in NATO to boot.
Perhaps they should stop letting their countries be used for US staging attacks on Iran then
Boomers, and what‘s left of MAGA, will be up in arms but the rest of the world will laugh at them.
When a global depression hits as a result, no one will be laughing, but most of the world will still blame the US.
The US may serve up an even better opportunity with a ground invasion.
Make just one of the gulf states uninhabitable, especially if they hit desalination.
Send the message, make everyone flee that country (no power, no water) and leave it for dead.
But the rest of the rest of the region infrastructure remains intact (for now).
What’s funny is there will be tribal groups nearly unaffected because they never modernized
if we're going to get rid of all the rules of war, a lot of people are going to have a really, really bad time.
So no one gets to complain about reprisals. And nobody gets to go home
The reason why armies follow what appear to be "rules" is very simply because not following them is counterproductive to their goals.
Governments are nothing without an air of legitimacy, so the hearts-and-minds battle is positively central to any campaign.
It's quite plausible that the reason why Iran has not hit the Israeli desalination plant is because there are enough Muslim Palestinians who would die if Israel ran out of water, that it would harm Iran's standing with the wider Muslim community. It has nothing to do with Geneva Convention saying that civilian infrastructure is a no-no.
But this doesn't mean that they can't cluster-bomb Tel Aviv. That's also a "war crime", but it's not one that they really have to care about. Same goes for Israel using white phosphorus in Lebanon, it's a war crime, but not one that they really have to care about.
Russia was VERY gentlemanly in the early days of the Ukraine war, and this was because the international community was watching them, and public support for helping Ukraine was conditioned a lot on public perception of Russia as a terror state. But 4 years later nobody is watching anymore, so they now feel that destroying Ukranian power and heating infrastructure is not going to have any real down-sides for them.
True. But....
what do you think the relevance of this is, though?
Jews will violate all the rules because they can't help it. Its who they are.
Has isreal followed any of those recently? If not, why is that ok for them but not for others?
This poast is antisemitic
Everyone wishes it were different, but that's just the reality.
You can't just attack your opponent's military bases, that's cheating
"Really unfair." ![]()
It's not the look they should be aiming for, but we'll get to that point, shortly now it seems.
It is if you're shia and they're sunni.
yeah and that's why they're all fucking retards.