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That's actually a bit LESS bonkers than I had originally thought.
Basically what JPM is saying is that once Countries That Matter start to have oil troubles, they're going to say "Look, we need this problem solved, and whoever is making trouble for getting it solved, you're gonna start losing family members in Nasty Accidents, fix this right now."
Basically what JPM is saying is that once Countries That Matter start to have oil troubles, they're going to say "Look, we need this problem solved, and whoever is making trouble for getting it solved, you're gonna start losing family members in Nasty Accidents, fix this right now."
Problem is that the countries that really matter (China, Iran, Russia) may have differing opinions on the matter, and not with each other
Iran will open the straits no problem. And with it the first tollbooth. The second tollbooth will be for the internet cables there.
Iran took its hit already by curbing production. That deadline was a while ago (They ran out of places to put oil).
When did Iran switch back to a monarchy?
So can we finally sever all ties with Israel and get things rolling again?
And when 5,736,546,235,252,357 poos don't have enough fuel to even cook the slop they call food, they get downright irritable. The ones who are favoring them still need them to play their role.
The problem is China is a big buyer of oil from Iran, they may just pivot to shipping by land while the west burns itself down. It'd be nice is someone got the clown and his master though.
Iran kinda matters but kinda doesn't. They're relevant to this particular situation, but they're not considered a "Country That Matters" in the general sense. They're gonna basically do what China tells to them to do because China is their benefactor at this point.
Russia doesn't really care about oil price because they're a net producer.
China will basically threaten to sic North Korea on South Korea if they are being strangled.
I expect the most sneaky and clever shenanigans will come out of Europe, because they're fairly expert at finding pressure points and exploiting them. Perhaps they will push toward launching a UN investigation into the Palestinian Genocide or something like that.
Russia doesn't really care about oil price because they're a net producer.
China will basically threaten to sic North Korea on South Korea if they are being strangled.
I expect the most sneaky and clever shenanigans will come out of Europe, because they're fairly expert at finding pressure points and exploiting them. Perhaps they will push toward launching a UN investigation into the Palestinian Genocide or something like that.
By that logic the US is a monarchy, since we had two Bush presidents
They're starting the plan to make a pipeline in the Caspian. Russia will then ship it china. Russia and iran can lick down the Caspian easy.
So turns out China was prepared for this via massive stores of oil and diversifying away from oil. Almost like it was planned. The west will start having food problems and fuel problems before China does and then the hard sell to hungry people "You must be cold and hungry because Israel wants it that way. Now be silent lest we call you all anti semite"
China's Electric Vehicle gambit was pure brilliance, and it is going to pay them massive dividends.
your claim that the Iranian government would collapse if the current ayatollah is taken out is ridiculous and is the same line of thinking that got us into this mess in the first place.
@Terry @cjd @Captain_Wet_Beard I never claimed that, back to the phonics mines until your reading comprehension improves.
why is the number of ayatollah's family members relevant?
@Terry @cjd @Captain_Wet_Beard how do you get through life with the reading comprehension of a child?
>"Russia doesn't really care about oil price because they're a net producer."
Actually that implies that they benefit from the strait being closed, since it increases the value of their product
Actually that implies that they benefit from the strait being closed, since it increases the value of their product
just like america is a net producer
except we're artificially lower the price of our oil and demand is spiking thus still driving up prices, becuase people are filling up on our cheap oil and using it overseas
point is, higher priced oil in a "free" market means higher prices for everyone
except we're artificially lower the price of our oil and demand is spiking thus still driving up prices, becuase people are filling up on our cheap oil and using it overseas
point is, higher priced oil in a "free" market means higher prices for everyone
becuase anyone who has lower prices will have increased demand for their oil thus pushing it back up.
if we nationalized our oil industry and cut off exports, we could control the domestic price, but we don't do that becuase that's communist or something.
Strategy re Iran is not gonna be that, their system is too decentralized. They will be brought to heel by China who is their supplier.
But China needs oil so China needs the strait opened anyway, so interests align.
Mostly the problem here is the US, so the thinking is that pressure will be applied there.
But China needs oil so China needs the strait opened anyway, so interests align.
Mostly the problem here is the US, so the thinking is that pressure will be applied there.
@cjd @Captain_Wet_Beard @Terry I would be surprised if China doesn't start getting their oil overland via the Turkic SSRs or even Afghanistan, though Afghanistan is pretty off the table since they're fighting Pakistan and China will always be at least hands off with Pakistan due to their respective relationships with India
Check the timestamp: https://pkteerium.xyz/@cjd/posts/B3mWRqyuvGQuTApoeW
America's problem is that a lot of countries: Germany, UK, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, all kind of depend on America to figure out their problems for them, and in exchange they offer America loyalty.
If America is like "lol you're on your own bitch", these countries are going to go to China and say "okay, is there a deal we can make?" and if that happens, then the American empire is over.
It probably is anyway, but people are pretending that it's not.
If America is like "lol you're on your own bitch", these countries are going to go to China and say "okay, is there a deal we can make?" and if that happens, then the American empire is over.
It probably is anyway, but people are pretending that it's not.
Although, I think I remember Euros getting on their high horse and boycotting Russia when the Ukraine invasion started. I haven't been keeping up on that front, they've surely eaten a lot of crow by this point.
It's probably been over for a while, we've been running on the fumes of legitimacy that we haven't actually had since around the time of the invasion of Iraq. Our military and perception as a superpower have only been eroding since then.
Euros are the world premier masters of duplicity. They invented geopolitics after all. So what they say in public and what they do in private are two entirely different things...