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That's actually a bit LESS bonkers than I had originally thought.
Basically what JPM is saying is that once Countries That Matter start to have oil troubles, they're going to say "Look, we need this problem solved, and whoever is making trouble for getting it solved, you're gonna start losing family members in Nasty Accidents, fix this right now."
Basically what JPM is saying is that once Countries That Matter start to have oil troubles, they're going to say "Look, we need this problem solved, and whoever is making trouble for getting it solved, you're gonna start losing family members in Nasty Accidents, fix this right now."
Problem is that the countries that really matter (China, Iran, Russia) may have differing opinions on the matter, and not with each other
Iran kinda matters but kinda doesn't. They're relevant to this particular situation, but they're not considered a "Country That Matters" in the general sense. They're gonna basically do what China tells to them to do because China is their benefactor at this point.
Russia doesn't really care about oil price because they're a net producer.
China will basically threaten to sic North Korea on South Korea if they are being strangled.
I expect the most sneaky and clever shenanigans will come out of Europe, because they're fairly expert at finding pressure points and exploiting them. Perhaps they will push toward launching a UN investigation into the Palestinian Genocide or something like that.
Russia doesn't really care about oil price because they're a net producer.
China will basically threaten to sic North Korea on South Korea if they are being strangled.
I expect the most sneaky and clever shenanigans will come out of Europe, because they're fairly expert at finding pressure points and exploiting them. Perhaps they will push toward launching a UN investigation into the Palestinian Genocide or something like that.
>"Russia doesn't really care about oil price because they're a net producer."
Actually that implies that they benefit from the strait being closed, since it increases the value of their product
Actually that implies that they benefit from the strait being closed, since it increases the value of their product
Check the timestamp: https://pkteerium.xyz/@cjd/posts/B3mWRqyuvGQuTApoeW
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2Although, I think I remember Euros getting on their high horse and boycotting Russia when the Ukraine invasion started. I haven't been keeping up on that front, they've surely eaten a lot of crow by this point.
Euros are the world premier masters of duplicity. They invented geopolitics after all. So what they say in public and what they do in private are two entirely different things...